• Trump Media shares hit a record post-merger low on Tuesday.
• The stock has slid alongside declining odds for a Donald Trump presidential victory.
• The emergence of Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate has slowed Trump's momentum.
Shares in Trump Media and Technology are hovering near record lows amid falling election odds for Donald Trump.
The Truth Social parent firm fell to a post-merger low of $21.33 on Tuesday before rebounding on during Wednesday trading.
The decline tracks Trumps's declining odds to be elected as president in November. According to the betting market PredictIt, the former president's chances of retaking the Oval Office have dropped to 47% from 69% last month.
In some respects, DJT stock has come to resemble a bet on Trump's victory chances. It spiked in mid-July, when the failed assassination attempt on Trump raised outlooks that he would win.
The emergence of Vice President Kamala Harris has since pushed the stock back into a tailspin. Her momentum revived chances of a Democratic presidency, which had slid heavily under Biden. She now holds a 56% implied probability of winning and has gradually gained a polling lead against Trump.
This week will have especially weighed against Trump, with all eyes on the Democratic Convention.
Shares have also fallen amid Trump's return to X, formerly Twitter, a platform he was temporarily barred from in 2021. His comeback last week involved an interview with X CEO Elon Musk.
However, some investors will likely find Trump's return disappointing since Truth Social was marketed as an alternative to Twitter.
Meanwhile, Trump Media can depend little on its own performance, as the firm is not profitable, and has become a reputed meme stock.
The company posted a $16 million loss in its latest earnings report and a decline in quarterly revenue.
Falling shares are not a welcome sight for Trump, who owns around 60% of the firm. While regulation has barred insiders from cashing in this stake for six months since March, this limit will expire on September 20th.
Trump has made no indication that he will cash in his shares, but is facing massive legal fees that could add pressure. According to Bloomberg, lawsuits and prosecutions against the former president have amounted to over half a billion dollars in penalties.
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