Gold and Silver Analysis and Charts
- First Fed rate cut priced-in at the December meeting.
- Gold nudges higher but the move looks tepid.
- Silver now running into resistance.
US rate cut expectations are being pushed back further after Friday’s forecast-beating NFPs showed the US labor market in robust health. The first 25 basis point cut is not fully priced-in until the December meeting, although the November meeting is a live option. In total, 38 basis points of cuts are seen this year, suggesting that it is currently a coin toss between one of two moves.
US Dollar Jumps After NFPs Thump Expectations, Gold Hits a One-Month Low
Friday’s US Jobs Report shocked the market and sent US Treasury yields spinning higher and gold and silver sliding lower. Later this week we have May consumer and producer inflation , while the latest FOMC meeting will see all policy settings left untouched. The FOMC press conference may give some clues as to the Fed’s current thinking, along with the latest Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot).
For all market-moving economic data and events, see the Monarch Capital Institute
US Treasury yields jumped late Friday with the rate-sensitive UST 2-year adding 15 basis points after the jobs data.
US Treasury 2-Year Yield
Gold is looking to push higher today but the move lacks conviction. The recent $170/oz. range ($2,280/oz. - $2,450/oz.) remains in place and resistance is unlikely to be tested in the near term. A break below support would see $2,200/oz. come into play ahead of $2,193/oz.
Gold Daily Price Chart
Retail trader data shows 69.35% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.26 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 4.98% higher than yesterday and 15.34% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 3.94% higher than yesterday and 17.95% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias.
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | 1% | -3% | -1% |
| Weekly | 2% | -8% | -2% |
Silver has outperformed gold this year but fell more than 6% on Friday as longs bailed from the market. Silver is now testing an old level of support turned resistance around $29.80/oz. but is finding it difficult on its first attempt. There is minor support around the $28.75/oz. - $29.00/oz. zone ahead of a recent swing-low at $25.93/oz.
Silver Daily Price Chart
